Invest in a diverse portfolio that tilts toward undervalued prediction markets, for traders who understand the potential benefits and risks of investing in markets where the crowd consensus may be wrong.
Traders who believe in finding value in markets with mispriced probabilities
This investment analysis tool presents hypothetical outcomes. Modeled portfolio performance is based on the selected portfolio strategy, risk level, account type, initial investment, and Betterment's management fees. Projected performance assumes the portfolio maintains the target allocation for the entire period, is comprised of the primary funds, includes fund-level fees, and rebalances periodically. Individual performance results may vary over time.
Based on an allocation of prediction markets across different categories
You can use Dune Analytics to backtest this portfolio strategy with historical data. Dune provides access to blockchain data that can be queried using SQL.
-- Backtest for Value Tilt Strategy
WITH market_data AS (
SELECT
block_time,
market_address,
outcome,
price,
volume
FROM polymarket.trades
WHERE block_time >= NOW() - INTERVAL '90 days'
),
portfolio_performance AS (
SELECT
date_trunc('day', block_time) AS day,
SUM(CASE
WHEN outcome = 'YES' AND price > 0.5 THEN volume * (1/price - 1)
WHEN outcome = 'NO' AND price < 0.5 THEN volume * (1/(1-price) - 1)
ELSE 0
END) AS daily_profit
FROM market_data
GROUP BY 1
ORDER BY 1
)
SELECT
day,
daily_profit,
SUM(daily_profit) OVER (ORDER BY day) AS cumulative_profit
FROM portfolio_performance
ORDER BY day;This backtest simulates the performance of the Value Tilt strategy over the past year using historical Polymarket data. The query filters for political markets and calculates daily and cumulative returns.