This market will resolve to "Yes" if both of the following two conditions are met:
1) Donald J. Trump wins the 2024 US Presidential election.
2) An armistice, ceasefire, or negotiated settlement is announced by both Ukraine and Russia regarding the ongoing war in Ukraine at any point between the Associated Press calling the election for Donald Trump, and April 19, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Trump loses the 2024 US Presidential election, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The resolution source for Trump winning the presidency is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This portion of the market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2025) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
To count toward the resolution of this market, an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement must be indicative of at least the temporary end of the Ukraine-Russia military conflict, must pertain to all theaters of military conflict between the two countries, and be declared through official channels by both countries. The specific date that such an agreement will take effect is not relevant to the resolution of this market. The only requirement is that the agreement must be announced within this market's specified timeframe.
This market will resolve based on the first announcement of such an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement. If it is first announced before this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No".